James Paxton's Absence Creates Rotation Competition

Brendan Smith

Gerrit Cole was the prized addition to the New York Yankees this offseason, but the second-biggest storyline heading to Spring Training is the absence of left-hander James Paxton.

Paxton struggled with back issues at the end of last season and chose to conservatively treat the injury this offseason. When the rehab did not improve his condition, Paxton underwent back surgery last week to repair the ruptured disc. The 31-year-old's recovery timetable is set to be at least three months.

Paxton's absence has opened a spot in the rotation, with several candidates available to take the job. Currently, Cole, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and JA Happ are lined up as the top four of the rotation. The fifth spot is wide open, with Jonathan Loaisiga and Jordan Montgomery set to compete with prospects Michael King, Deivi Garcia, and Nick Nelson.

Both Loaisiga and Montgomery have plenty of MLB experience, although Montgomery has thrown just 31.1 innings since registering a 3.88 ERA in 2017. Loaisiga has started eight times in the big leagues but missed some time with shoulder issues in 2019. While healthy, Loaisiga has shown a powerful arsenal, striking out 70 batters in 56.1 innings.

Of the three prospects, Garcia possesses the highest ceiling, with scouts projecting him to ascend to the level of a number two starter. Garcia struggled to a 5.40 ERA in 40 innings at AAA but finished his season with 165 strikeouts in 111.1 innings. Still just 20 years-old, Garcia is likely to start the season in the minors. King made his major league debut in 2019, pitching two innings, giving up one unearned run against Texas in September. King projects as a mid-rotation pitcher. As for Nelson, the hard-throwing righty struck out 114 batters in 89.2 innings across three minor league levels. Nelson's fringe control may force him to the bullpen, where he could become a power late-inning reliever.

Of course, there still are outside options, although with both Paxton and Domingo German (suspension) set to return this summer, spending money or prospect capital seems to be an unlikely approach.